Everyday Killings in Mexico Decline 37% In the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Statistics
The typical figure of daily killings monthly in Mexico has decreased by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to fresh administrative figures. But, security analysts have cautioned that homicide numbers may not signal enhanced countrywide stability.
Significant Drop in Per-Day Numbers
Officials reported an mean of close to 55 homicides a day in last November versus almost 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in September. This data was shared by the director of the country’s national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.
“The result in homicides that we have seen in these months is remarkably notable,” Sheinbaum stated, explaining that last month the lowest number of murders were registered for any single November in the past decade.
Recent Context and Official Plan
Intense organized crime internal conflicts, alongside the administration's highly military efforts to take on the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in the past few years. The rate hit a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data office.
That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate more than four times greater than the United States. From that point, murders have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 the previous year. The President has linked her public safety strategy for an seemingly sharper drop in homicides in the current year.
At a news briefing in August, the President declared: “There is a plan, we have tracking of the plan, and we have specific tracking locality by locality in some cases. The approach functions. And we have to persist at it each day.”
The main elements of the President's security strategy include:
- Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
- Improving information gathering and investigation capabilities.
- Increased collaboration between various authorities.
Analyst Caution and Data Concerns
However, public safety researchers cautioned that focusing solely on murder numbers to draw a conclusion of improved security was misleading. This is especially true in light of the uptick in other crimes such as abductions.
“This would be positive news if this were a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the murder data and conclude: ‘Alright, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”
According to the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the identical period last year. However, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain states have risen by as much as 200%.
“Data on homicides is not reliable for gauging the reality of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the resources or the will to correctly identify and classify remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”
Vargas added that using monthly means of everyday homicides was also an issue because it might hide periods when there were particularly high levels of killings.
“Employing the per-day mean makes surges of violence invisible,” he concluded.
Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success
Where the administration can highlight the success of its security plan is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for major crimes, according to official data. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.
“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms beneficial,” stated Vargas.
Ongoing Violence and Public Frustration
Yet despite these measures, Mexico is still beset by severe violence, with several regions in the midst of cartel-fueled violence. Last month there was a prominent killing of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the last year.
Weeks later, many thousands of protesters demonstrated in the capital and throughout the country to voice their outrage at graft and drug violence.
“The administration frames [data] in a manner to construct a story of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very potent, socially it’s very debatable,” Vargas said.