Everyday Killings in the nation Fall 37% Under President Sheinbaum, Per Official Figures
The typical figure of daily murders each month in Mexico has dropped by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per fresh administrative figures. However, public safety analysts have warned that homicide numbers could fail to signal better national safety.
Notable Reduction in Per-Day Numbers
Officials reported an mean of almost 55 killings a day in November compared with nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the leadership in September of last year. This data was delivered by the director of the country’s national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.
“The outcome in killings that have been recorded over these months is extremely important,” Sheinbaum stated, explaining that last month the lowest amount of murders were documented for any November in the past decade.
Recent Context and Official Plan
Intense drug cartel infighting, alongside the government’s heavily militarised efforts to combat the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate soar in recent times. The figure hit a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data office.
That gave Mexico a murder rate more than 4x higher than that of the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 the previous year. The President has credited her national security plan for an seemingly sharper reduction in killings in the current year.
At a media briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader said: “We have a strategy, we have tracking of the plan, and there is specific tracking town by town in some cases. The approach is effective. And we have to persist at it daily.”
The central elements of Sheinbaum’s safety plan include:
- Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
- Advancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
- Enhanced cooperation between various agencies.
Analyst Warnings and Data Limitations
But, security researchers warned that focusing solely on murder statistics to assess the situation of peace was flawed. This is especially true in light of the uptick in other criminal activities such as abductions.
“That would be excellent news if this were a decrease, but I think we must not just concentrate on the murder data and think: ‘Alright, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican cartels. “I would be tentatively positive.”
According to the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the same timeframe the previous year. However, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some states have risen by up to 200%.
“Data on homicides is not reliable for assessing the reality of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the desire to accurately recognize and categorize remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to mask violence through disappearances.”
Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month averages of everyday killings was similarly problematic because it could mask days when there were notably elevated numbers of murders.
“Relying on the daily mean renders spikes of violence less visible,” he concluded.
Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Progress
An area where the administration can cite the effectiveness of its safety plan is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 suspects were apprehended between last October and this past November for high-impact crimes, according to official data. Over 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tons of narcotics seized.
“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s very politically profitable,” said Vargas.
Persistent Unrest and Public Anger
Yet despite these measures, Mexico continues to be plagued by high bloodshed, with multiple regions in the grip of cartel-related conflict. In the previous month there was a prominent killing of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the past 12 months.
Weeks later, thousands of protesters demonstrated in the capital and throughout the nation to express their frustration at graft and cartel violence.
“The federal government shares [data] in a manner to build a picture of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, socially it’s very problematic,” the analyst remarked.